Fiscal Futility
Posted May 16, 2012 at 3:00 pm, in Allied Approaches, from Robert Kuttner
On Tuesday, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation will hold its third annual fiscal summit. We need this event like we need a mass outbreak of sado-masochism.
If you wonder why all right-thinking people seem to have concluded that austerity is the royal road to economic recovery from a severe financial collapse made on Wall Street, look no further than the Peterson Foundation. Pete Peterson, a Republican with prodigious Democratic and media connections, who made his fortune in private equity, has committed a cool billion dollars to the task of persuading less affluent Americans to tighten their belts. He is the cynical center’s answer to the Koch Brothers.
The Bowles-Simpson commission on deficit reduction, the idea of automatic triggers to cut deficits in a recession, the goal of a grand bargain to raise taxes and slash Social Security, the covey of bipartisan deficit hawks, the blurring of the issue of long term solvency for Medicare and Social Security with the issue of a recovery strategy, are all part of the Peterson Foundation’s grand design. The Washington Post‘s Lori Montgomery faithfully echoes Peterson’s line, as do one tedious column after another by the likes of Tom Friedman on the center-left and David Brooks on the center-right.
The Peterson Foundation has relentlessly promoted the idea that the main economic challenge today is to set a target ten years down the road for a reduced ratio of public debt to GDP, on the premise that this will somehow restore economic growth. President Obama has dutifully obliged, targeting ten year cuts of $4.4 trillion in his FY 2013 budget. The House Republicans, using far more inventive accounting, target $5.3 trillion. The two budgets are far apart in how they treat taxes and social spending. Obama would raise taxes and defend social outlay, while the Republicans would cut both. Yet, at a time when Democrats and Republicans agree on nothing else, they bizarrely agree on belt-tightening in a recession.
However, the fact remains that the very idea what we can specify budget cuts in a deflationary recession, and imagine that they will lead is to a predictable debt ratio, is economic fantasy. Why? Because the budget cuts themselves will reduce the economy’s overall purchasing power, leading to slower growth and reduced revenues — and larger deficits. (That’s the real analogy with Greece.) The reduced debt ratio thus is a mirage. (more…)














